An
NBC News/Wall Street Journal Poll conducted October 8-10 appears to suggest that Republicans could be in trouble in next year's midterm election.
807 registered voters nationwide were asked, "What is your preference for the outcome of the 2006 congressional elections: a Congress controlled by Republicans or a Congress controlled by Democrats?" The answer?
39% prefer Republicans
48% prefer Democrats
13% are Undecided
These numbers are being used by Democrats, left-wing bloggers, and the mainstream media to suggest that the Democrats are set to take control of Congress in 2006. But what these numbers do not show is the breakdown of individual Senate and House races, so I decided to do a little checking, and here's what I found.
The Senate Republicans currently hold a 55-44 seat edge in the Senate, with one liberal-leaning independent, giving Republicans an effective advantage of 55-45
There will be 33 Senate elections in 2006. Of those 33 seats, 17 are currently held by Democrats, 15 by Republicans, and one by an independent.
Analysis of these 33 races reveals the following:
-13 of the 17 Democrat seats are very likely to remain Democrat.
-10 of the 15 Republican seats are very likely to remain Republican.
-The one Democrat leaning independent seat is likely to remain independent.
This means that there are four Senate seats currently held by Democrats that could go to Republicans, and there are five seats currently held by Republicans that could go to Democrats.
Now, let's suppose the Democrats do the following:
-Protect all 4 of the currently held Democrat seats that seem to be in play.
-Win all 5 of the currently held Republican seats that seem to be in play.
This would leave the Senate with a 50/50 split (counting the lone independent with the Democrats). However, with Vice President Cheney casting the deciding vote in the case of any ties, the Democrats would, in reality, still be one seat short of controlling the Senate, meaning that they would have to win one of the current Republican seats that seems to be safe, without letting the Republicans win any "safe" Democrat seats.
In other words, for Democrats to take control of the Senate in 2006, they would need a near perfect storm of victories.
The House Republicans currently hold a 231-202 seat edge in the House, with 1 Independent, and one vacant seat. In December, the vacant seat will become occupied by Republican John Campbell from Orange County California, giving Republicans a 232-202-1 advantage.
All House seats will be on the ballot in 2006, but analysts, depending on whom you listen to, believe that only 30 to 32 of those seats will be competitive. Of those seats, again according to whom you listen and, therefore, according to which races you see as competitive, 18 to 20 of the competitive races are for seats currently held by Republicans; 10 to 14 are for seats currently held by Democrats.
Looking at one possible scenario based on the above numbers, suppose there are 32 seats in play, 20 currently held by Republicans, 12 by Democrats. To create just a 217-217 tie in the House, Democrats would have to protect all 12 of their own seats, and win 15 of the 20 seats away from the Republicans.
You can create other scenarios from these numbers, but in any one of them, Democrats would need to nearly run the table to gain control of the House in 2006.
Now, I admit, I'm not a statistician, and maybe there is something in these numbers that I'm not seeing. I also realize that it's early, and just because a particular seat might look safe now, that doesn't mean it will be safe next November. That's true of seats held by either party.
Still, it looks to me like the chances of the Republicans maintaining control of both the Senate and the House are excellent, and the great Democratic takeover is just the wishful thinking of the left. Am I wrong?
Source used for this report: National Review Online Sabato's Crystal Ball The Washington Times